Introduction to Quantitative History: Assignment 7

Questions this assignment addresses: How can we use numbers to understand our past? You will read, use websites and a spreadsheet, answer questions, and submit your answers to the dropbox Numbers I.

1. For the first part of this lesson, please play a game.

Go to http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/

Play the game. Do you understand why you should always switch?

If not, go to http://webs.wofford.edu/bednarjt/monty/montyhall.html for an explanation.

2. Learning Outcomes: By the end of this lesson students will be able to-

1. Identify the difference between the mean, median, and mode of a group of numbers.
2. Open a spreadsheet file using a spreadsheet program.
3. Identify why the different ways of counting and averaging matter.
4. Read a spreadsheet by using tabs.
5. Answer questions about the past by interpreting data.

3. Why do historical statistics matter?

Let’s tackle that one word at a time, backwards. Statistics matter because we use numbers to measure our lives, whether it’s the dollars in our bank account, the number of friends we have on facebook, or how full a glass is (half full?) Increasingly, statistics are used to convince us in the truth of an argument. Yet, without a basic understanding of statistics, people often fall back into the cynicism that all numbers lie. Numbers are just information, and just as we apply the PISA test to sources, so too can we apply certain standards for what is a credible statistic.

Why do statistics matter to history? Numbers show us trends, that is up or down, in parts of our lives that are important. How much food, per person, does one society provide over time? How is income distributed to a people, mostly to the rulers, or does every group have a sizable chunk? As well, numbers let us compare groups that are fare apart from each other in geographic or temporal terms. Did the Han Chinese of 100 CE have greater economic output than the Roman Empire in Europe of 100 CE? Statistics matter because we can see trends (changes over time) and comparisons.

4. What is an average? Questions to answer.

To start, let’s deal with a simple concept: an average. There are three types of averages, the mean, median, and mode.

For a text definition of these terms, see https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mean-median-and-mode–2312604

For video explanation, see https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/data-distributions-a1/summarizing-center-distributions/v/mean-median-and-mode

Questions: Please answer Let’s say a large village had 25 people die in a single year. Below is the age of each deceased villager.

• Average the following ages: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 6, 9, 18, 18, 35, 45, 58, 72, 73, 75, 78, 88, 92, 107, 110. (25 numbers).
• What is the mean age of death in this town?
• What is the median (number in the middle of s string of numbers) age of death for this town?
• What is the mode (most commonly occurring number in string of numbers) age of death for this town?
• If you are 34 years old, are you scared of dying next year? Why or why not?

As a historian, when you see the word “average” you always need to ask if it’s the mean, median, or mode and is that the most useful average for understanding the past.

If you’d like more help understanding mean, median, and mode, you can see a video here.

5. A brief pause for technical help.

For the next part of the lesson, you need access to a spreadsheet program. You can use Microsoft Excel or Mac Numbers if those programs are already on your computer. If you don’t want to use those programs, you’ll need to do one of two things:

1. You can use any spreadsheet program you wish. These include Excel online through your Normandale account, Google Sheets through a google account, Excel (Microsoft) or Numbers (Mac) as stand alone applications on your computer or LibreOffice a free software suite.

You will need to download and use this spreadsheet for the Assignment 7 this week. It is in an Excel format (.xlsx) which can be read by most spreadsheet programs. Examples of how it will appear are below.

A. Excel online by signing in to office.com with your StarID

B. Google Sheets

C. Numbers (Mac spreadsheet program)

Note that the application Numbers puts tabs at the top of the spreadsheet.

D. Excel as stand-alone application on Mac (dark mode)

6. How much did we make? An introduction to big historical numbers.

Open “Historical Statistics”

The first tab (Notes) is an introduction and not terribly useful to use. Tabs 2 and 3 (GDP pc and Population) will offer us more useful information.

7. Understanding Terms

GDP pc = Gross domestic produce per capita. This refers to the total value of goods and services produced in a country/region per person.

Population = How many humans were living in this region in this year.

FAQ:

• Did governments have accurate counts of GDP per capita and their populations?

  • In general no. Historians are using regression analysis, that is applying a series of assumptions to evidence, to calculate our best estimate of these numbers.

• Is a blank in the spreadsheet a zero?

  • No, when you see a blank, that means we don’t have information, not that it was zero. In history, we never assume the absence of evidence equals evidence of absence. For example, just because a person does not have a sibling painted in their picture does not mean that person lacked a sibling.

8. Questions to complete the assignment

Answering the following questions by reading from the Excel Spread sheet.

Population Tab: Note you need to add three 0’s (000) to get the correct population number.

• 1- What country had the most significant population growth between year 1 and year 1000 CE?

• 2- Adding the populations of all the countries in year 1000 together, what is the average population (mean) and what is the median population?

• 3- What stands out to you when reading this population data? What numbers seem significant in a way that you would like to investigate more to understand?

• 4- Search the internet for the GDP per capita of someone living in Minnesota: what is it?

PerCapita GDP tab (per capita means per person, or the average contribution to the total amount of production in a country)

• 5- What country had the largest absolute GDP per capita change sometime during the years 1 to 1500 CE?

• 6- What country had the smallest absolute GDP per capita change sometime during the years 1 to 1500 CE?

• 7- What change or stasis (lack of change) do you find worth investigating more? What possible explanation could you offer for this change or stasis?

11. Grading Criteria

You will receive one point for each correctly answered question. Please answer the questions in complete sentences.